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COVID-19: March 24, 2020 Top 10 Rankings & What it Means

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The Top Ten Rankings and What it Means

As of March 24, 2020 3:18 pm
  • Ten Highest Number of Confirmed Cases
    1. China: 81,558
    2. Italy: 63,927
    3. United States: 46,450 [0.8% recovered]
    4. Spain: 35, 212
    5. Germany 29,560
    6. Iran: 23,049
    7. France: 20,149
    8. South Korea: 9,037 [120 deaths, (1.3%)]
    9. Switzerland: 8,795 [1.5% recovered]
    10. United Kingdom: 6,726 [2.1% recovered]
  • Ten Highest Number of Deaths
    1. Italy: 6,820
    2. China: 3,281
    3. Spain: 2,800
    4. Iran: 1,934
    5. France: 862
    6. United States: 606 [1.3% of cases]
    7. United Kingdom: 423
    8. Netherlands: 277
    9. Germany: 156 [0.5% of cases]
    10. Switzerland: 122 [1.4% of cases]
  • Ten Highest Percentage of Deaths 
    1. Italy (10.7%)
    2. Iran (8.4%)
    3. Spain (8.0%)
    4. United Kingdom (6.3%)
    5. Netherlands (5.8%)
    6. France (4.3%)
    7. China (4.0%)
    8. Japan (3.8%) [1,140 cases and 43 deaths]
    9. Belgium (3.3%) [3,743 cases and 122 deaths]
    10. Ecuador (2.8%) [981 cases and 27 deaths]
  • Ten Highest Percentage Recovered
    1. China (74%)
    2. South Korea (38.8%)
    3. Iran (38.7%)
    4. Japan (25%)
    5. Italy (13%)
    6. Belgium (12.3%)
    7. Malaysia (11.3%) [1,624 cases and 15 deaths]
    8. France (11.0%)
    9. Spain (10.8%)
    10. Germany (10.6%)

Rates of Confirmed Cases are changing … Where is your State Headed? 

China had the highest number of cases of coronavirus and it is also the country with the highest percentage of recoveries. Although 3,281 Chinese people died, the second highest number of deaths, it was 7th in the percentage of deaths. The data shows that China is on the downswing of this pandemic.

Italy will be remembered in history as the country hardest hit by the coronavirus. It has the second highest number of cases, the highest number and percentage of deaths and it’s still not over. Only 13% of it’s citizens who have coronavirus have recovered. However, the data below shows that the rate of new cases are declining which means that the nightmare may soon be over.

The United States had the 3rd highest number of cases of coronavirus. The U.S. only has 606 deaths (1.3%) and that doesn’t even rank in the Top 10 of percentages of deaths worldwide. But, U.S. also isn’t in the Top 10 of  recovered cases. [The number of recovered cases in the US was not at the time of this writing from the CDC or Johns Hopkins. The Johns Hopkins dashboard was updating it’s data and it the CDC has stopped reporting on recoveries. However, one This is the source used, reporting 370 recovered cases.] The United States is 16th in terms of the percentage of cases that have recovered (0.8%). Some US  States have a slower rate of new cases while others have a faster rate of new cases. The data below lists the States for which data was available.

Spain made the top ten of all rankings. It has the 4th highest number of confirmed cases, the 3rd highest percentage and actual number of deaths in the world and it’s only 10.8% recovered. You may recall that Spain allowed an international women’s day celebration several days after learning the virus was in it’s country. When we compare Spain’s outcomes with Germany, we can’t help but wonder if that was a mistake.

Germany is number 5 in confirmed cases, about 6,000 fewer than Spain. There have only been 156 fatalities of it’s 29,560 cases which represents one half of one percent (0.5%). Spain saw 2,800 deaths. While Germany ranks number 10 in percentage of recoveries, (and Spain is at number 9), only 10% have recovered in both countries. So, both countries are at about the same place in their pandemics, except Germany hasn’t been hit as hard. Why? My previous post may shed some light. Remember, it was posited that most of the German cases were contracted in Italy among skiers, who tend to be younger and healthier and we know that this virus is easier on those individuals. The caveat is that Germany’s overall population is one if the oldest in the world. So, preventing the spread of the virus is paramount in this country.

Iran also had a slow start in responding. It has the 6th highest number of cases, the 4th highest number of deaths representing the 2nd highest percentage of deaths, per the number of people infected. The good news for this country is that 38.7% of it’s cases have recovered, the third highest percentage, and its rate of new cases is declining.

France is still early in its infection. Only 11% of its 20,149 cases have recovered. The percentage of deaths have been low so far, on par with China at 4.3% (China was 4%). France isn’t out of the woods yet, though. While the rate of decline of new cases is slowing in some areas of the country, it’s increasing in others.

South Korea did remarkably well. There are only 9,037 cases, making it the 8th highest number of cases worldwide. But there have only been 120 deaths, representing 1.3% of it’s cases and has the 2nd highest percentage of recovered cases, at 38.8% recoveries. China is the only country that with over 50% of it’s cases recovered. It’s not certain that the world knows why, yet. But looking at the rate of new cases, it may be having a second round. Korea had a higher rate of new cases this week (by a large margin) than it did one week prior. The rate of new cases was 75% this week versus 24% the week before.

Switzerland has not been in the news much but it has the 9th highest number of cases in the world. Of the 8,795 cases of coronavirus only 1.5% have recovered, 122 have died which is 1.4% of cases and which means it is very early in its infection stage. It may also mean that Switzerland’s infected are younger healthier individuals, which mirrors its total population on a world comparison. Switzerland’s rate of new cases is declining.

The United Kingdom rounds out the top ten highest number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the world with 6,726 cases. It has the 7th highest number of actual deaths, which is less than one percent and it’s a little further along in recoveries than both Switzerland and the United States, with 2.1% of it’s cases recovered and the rate of new cases is declining in the mainland of the UK. This could be good new for the UK.

The Netherlands just missed the top ten ranking of confirmed cases with 4,767 cases but it has the 7th highest number of deaths and the 5th highest percentage of deaths worldwide. Only one tenth of one percent the it’s active cases have recovered. We will keep an eye on how the infection rates.

Japan, Belgium and Ecuador have all endured higher percentages of deaths than most countries, ranking number 8, 9, and 10 respectively, in this category. However, unlike the other two countries, 25% of Japan’s cases have recovered. This is remarkable because of its 1,140 cases and 43 deaths, it has the 4th highest percentage of recoveries. Belgium is number 6 and Ecaudor is far down at number 20. We are monitoring their rates of new cases.

What does all of this mean? According to Michael Levitt who won a Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2013, much of this data is not predictive. Levitt, who works in the structural biology department at Stanford University accurately predicted when China would recover. He also predicted its total number of cases and the country’s death rate. He did this by analyzing the rate of new cases. LA Times staff writer, Joe Mozingo published an article about Levitt’s prediction method. And it got my attention. However, the article fell short of listing the rates of new cases in detail. So, using this method on the data that is available from The Johns Hopkins dashboard (an impressive undertaking), that analysis is provided below for the top ten countries with the highest number of cases and for many states in the US.

Photo by ThisisEngineering RAEng on Unsplash
  • Rates of Confirmed Cases
    1. China:
      • Rate of new cases are declining to zero
    2. Italy:
      • Rate of new cases are declining
    3. United States: State Breakdown: Rate of new cases compared to the week prior
      • California: Slower Rate
      • Florida: Slower Rate
      • Georgia: Faster Rate
      • Guam: Faster Rate
      • Hawaii: Faster Rate
      • Idaho: Faster Rate
      • Illinois: Faster Rate
      • Indiana: Faster Rate
      • Iowa: Slower Rate
      • Kansas: Slower Rate
      • Kentucky: Slower Rate
      • Louisiana: Faster Rate
      • Maine: Slower Rate
      • Maryland: Faster Rate
      • Massachusetts: Slower Rate
      • Michigan: Faster Rate
      • Minnesota: Slower Rate
      • Mississippi: Faster Rate
      • Missouri: Faster Rate
      • Montana: Slower Rate
      • Nebraska: Slower Rate
      • Nevada: Slower Rate
      • New Hampshire: Slower Rate
      • New Jersey: Faster Rate
      • New Mexico: Slower Rate
      • New York: Faster Rate
      • North Carolina: Faster Rate
      • North Dakota: Faster Rate
      • Oklahoma: Slower Rate
      • Oregon: Slower Rate
      • Pennsylvania: Faster Rate
      • Rhode Island: Slower Rate
      • South Carolina: Faster Rate
      • South Dakota: Slower Rate
      • Tennessee: Faster Rate
      • Texas: Faster Rate
      • Utah: Slower Rate
      • Vermont: Faster Rate
      • Virginia: Slower Rate
      • Washington: Slower Rate
      • Washington DC: Faster Rate
      • West Virginia: Faster Rate
      • Wisconsin: Faster Rate
      • Wyoming: Slower Rate
    4. Spain:
      • Rate of new cases are declining
    5. Germany:
      • Rate of new cases are declining.
    6. Iran:
      • Rate of new cases are declining
    7. France:
      • Rate of new cases declining at different rates based on region
    8. South Korea:
      • Rates of new cases are declining but not as fast this week
    9. Switzerland:
      • Rates of new cases are declining.
    10. United Kingdom:
      • Rates of new cases are declining in the mainland
      • Rates of new cases are increasing in the Channel Islands
      • Rates of new cases are increasing in Gibraltar

And now that I’ve spent most of the day and tonight gathering and analyzing all of this information it’s already out of date. Things are changing daily but don’t let it change you. Don’t let these facts and figures stress you.

One of my mentors is Ekhart Tolle. Like cilantro, you’ll either love him or hate him (I hate cilantro). But, I invite you to take a deep breath and take a look at his YouTube video on anxiety. Guess how many minutes it is. Ten. I’ll be back at this in the morning.

(This post is brought to you by the number 10).

Photo by Sz. Marton on Unsplash
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